NFHL Newswire

Underperforming Superstars: Quarterly Report

This season, a new rule was passed by the Executive Committee, aimed towards ensuring that the league's highest rated stars live up to their potential or pay the price. The secondary, and perhaps indirect, impact of the rule could help to better establish parity across the league, making it harder for franchises to build super teams. Simply put, players that do not get the icetime commensurate to their talent level run the risk of a serious negative re-rate. Enshrined in the Charter, only forwards 27 years old or older can be negatively effected. For some additional nuance, there are two tiers of forwards subject to this rule, those with an OV between 85 - 87, and those above 88OV. If this is the first you're hearing of the ruling, the entire entry from the Charter reads as follows:

Underperforming Superstars

Every off-season, three numbers will be calculated based on scoring from the previous season. One will be the average points earned by the top 75 point getters, another will be the average goals earned by the top 75 goal scorers, and the final will be the average assists earned by the top 75 assist getters. Superstar players will be divided into two tiers and must meet or exceed the average from any ONE of the three scoring categories (Goals, Assists, Points) to keep their rating. This only applies to forwards at this time. It does not apply to defensemen and goalies, yet.

Forward Tiers

Tier 1: Players 88 OV or higher and 27 years of age or older
Tier 2: Players 85 - 87 OV and 27 years of age or older

Note that it is the player's OV BEFORE rerates that is used to determine which Tier they will be in. For example, if a player is 85 OV in 1994, he will be placed in the Tier 2 category and evaluated there, even if he rerates under 85 after rerates. Conversely, if he is 87, he will be placed in the Tier 2 category and evaluated there, even if he rerates to an 88 or higher. Essentially, the player's OV for the year the comparative numbers are calculated will be used in all situations.

Scoring Standards

Tier 1: Forwards in this tier must score at least 100% of the average of at least one of the three scoring categories.
Tier 2: Forwards in this tier must score at least 80% of the average of at least one of the three scoring categories.

Failing to meet standards:

Forwards who fail to meet their scoring standard will lose attributes after rerates, but before off season business begins.

Tier 1: Lose 3 points from every attribute.
Tier 2: Lose 2 points from every attribute.

Exceptions

Eligible forwards who played 69 or fewer games the previous season due to injury/suspension, will have their scoring stats prorated to a full season total when comparing to the scoring standards. Forwards who play 70 or more games will have their actual scoring totals used in comparison.

Bounce Back Season

Any forward who has had their stats reduced due to this rule, will have the chance to have their stats partially refunded at the end of the next season if they meet a specific standard the following season. To be eligible, the player MUST play for the same team in which he ended the previous season for the ENTIRE following season (if he is traded, he is not eligible for the Bounce Back Season). In addition, he must score at least equal to the average of the top 30 in goals, assists, or points (only one, not all three) in the following season. Should the player successfully meet those criteria, he would receive:

Tier 1: Gain 2 points for every attribute.
Tier 2: Gain 1 point for every attribute.

These points would be added to the player's rating after rerates. It is the GMs job to request calculation for a bounce-back season and they will have until rerates are released to do so. If they do not do this by the time rerates are released, they forfeit that opportunity.

Scoring standards will be posted prior to rerates being released.

So, with that out of the way, it's time to take a look at where things stand a quarter of the way through the 1994 season. A few days ago, Commissioner Mark Jones sent out a league-wide memo seeking to provide clarity and allay some fears across the league. The gist of the memo stated that most players subject to this rule were doing just fine, and most of those who were in jeopardy were just barely off pace and should be able to rebound over the remaining 75% of the season. But, the last bullet point of the memo ominously stated that not everyone was in great shape:

Of the 27 who failed, there are only a handful who generally have almost no chance of making it barring their GM playing them a heck of a lot more.

We're here to take a deeper dive into which superstars are in jeopardy, which teams might be impacted, and what this means for future roster construction strategies. This season, there are 75 forwards rated 85 or higher. Of those 75 forwards, 19 are below the age threshold and therefore exempt from the rule, including stars like John Leclair, Mike Modano, Brendan Shanahan, and Sergei Fedorov. That leaves 56 star players at the mercy of the rule. To break things down further, 28 of the 56, exactly half, are rated 88 or higher, the true superstars of the league. The other half are between 85 - 87OV. As noted above, the criterior for these two tiers and the severity of the punishment for failure to perform differs. As expected, players in Tier 1 have more to lose and the punishment is more punitive.

At the time of writing, here are the averages in goals, assists, and points, from the top 75 players in each category:

Goals: 9.44

Assists: 14

Points: 22.16

Commissioner Jones noted at the time of the memo that 27 forwards were in trouble, though our analysis shows 31 players currently on the outside looking in. It's true, however, that many of these star and superstar players are extremely close to hitting the mark, and shouldn't be considered in imminent danger. In Tier 1, Wayne Gretzky is notably below the 100% average of the top 75 scorers in all categories, but just barely. Currently, The Great One is at 95.34% of the average on goals, 85.71% on assists, and 94.77% on points, so he should be in good shape the rest of the way. Other supertars, however, have more work ahead. Colorado's Steve Yzerman is closest to hitting on assists, but is only currently at 85.71%. Florida's Mark Messier is in the exact same boat. Detroit's Dennis Savard might be contemplating retirement sooner rather than later, with his best percentage at only 74.15% on goals. Esa Tikkanen, who Commissioner Jones recently lambasted for never having lived up to the hype, looks like he'll finally be paying the price. The 88OV Tikkanen is having yet another statistically subpar season, and is below the 50% threshold in every category, making it very unlikely that he'll be able to recover. Boston's Steve Larmer rounds out the superstars in real danger, only having a realistic chance to hit the assists target, but is currently sitting at just 71.43%.

As we move down to Tier 2, where players only need to hit 80% of the average on one of the three statistics in question, things get even dicier. Luc Robitaille's slow start may end up being a major hit to Los Angeles, with the sniper failing to light the lamp. He's only a few percentage points away on assists and points (71.43% and 72.2% respectfully), but it's an uphill battle. Boston, who has been building towards something strong in recent years, could be taking a major step backwards, as Troy Murray looks to join Steve Larmer in the doghouse. To date, Murray has just 3 goals and 8 assists, putting him in serious jeopardy of hitting any threshold. Pittsburgh's Normand Leville, who signed a large extension last year, is mired in a terrible season, though he has missed 5 games on the year. From there, players like Guy Carbonneau, Pat Verbeek, Dino Ciccarelli, and Mike Gartner have almost no realistic chance of hitting any threshold, which could have major ramifications on their franchises. For those curious, here is a complete breakdown on the data:

Player	PO	IT	SP	ST	EN	DU	DI	SK	PA	PC	DF	SC	EX	LD	OV	AGE	Eligible?	G	A	P	G Ave %	A Ave %	P Ave %	SAFE?	Average G	Average A	Average P
Mario Lemieux	C	93	87	95	85	81	73	92	89	94	82	96	89	99	95	28	YES	10	19	29	105.93%	135.71%	130.87%	GOOD	9.44	14	22.16
Wayne Gretzky	C	84	95	90	87	96	76	88	94	95	83	93	99	92	95	33	YES	9	12	21	95.34%	85.71%	94.77%	BAD
Glenn Anderson	RW	92	96	84	92	94	82	86	94	94	84	91	99	53	94	34	YES	16	21	37	169.49%	150.00%	166.97%	GOOD
Ron Francis	C	85	90	90	82	91	59	86	95	95	80	90	92	41	93	31	YES	11	10	21	116.53%	71.43%	94.77%	GOOD
Michel Goulet	C	77	87	88	93	95	61	81	96	95	75	96	99	94	93	34	YES	9	11	20	95.34%	78.57%	90.25%	BAD
Steve Yzerman	LW	87	87	84	89	84	63	84	91	94	80	91	86	96	92	29	YES	6	12	18	63.56%	85.71%	81.23%	BAD
Adam Oates	C	85	89	87	85	97	68	87	98	94	80	82	88	76	92	32	YES	6	13	19	63.56%	92.86%	85.74%	BAD
Mark Messier	RW	89	84	90	91	92	66	89	85	87	76	91	99	99	92	33	YES	7	12	19	74.15%	85.71%	85.74%	BAD
Brett Hull	RW	87	82	91	90	87	81	87	84	89	82	90	99	52	91	28	YES	12	17	29	127.12%	121.43%	130.87%	GOOD
Pat Lafontaine	LW	90	86	82	85	79	69	90	88	86	83	93	80	57	91	29	YES	10	13	23	105.93%	92.86%	103.79%	GOOD
Igor Larionov	C	77	81	86	91	88	77	88	88	93	78	93	99	60	91	33	YES	10	15	25	105.93%	107.14%	112.82%	GOOD
Mario Tremblay	LW	79	76	71	89	84	62	84	99	99	79	90	99	99	91	38	YES	9	18	27	95.34%	128.57%	121.84%	GOOD
Peter Stastny	RW	86	74	84	90	89	92	86	96	87	70	91	99	91	91	38	YES	11	19	30	116.53%	135.71%	135.38%	GOOD
Kirk Muller	C	86	87	88	85	89	50	80	91	88	84	83	79	95	90	28	YES	14	19	33	148.31%	135.71%	148.92%	GOOD
Dale Hawerchuk	C	85	83	81	79	88	63	86	91	89	75	91	93	67	90	31	YES	12	19	31	127.12%	135.71%	139.89%	GOOD
Steve Thomas	LW	89	83	82	92	84	70	85	84	86	83	93	99	55	90	31	YES	10	12	22	105.93%	85.71%	99.28%	GOOD
Denis Savard	LW	80	90	80	87	89	53	92	82	91	75	99	94	27	90	33	YES	7	7	14	74.15%	50.00%	63.18%	BAD
Laurie Boschman	C	83	83	89	84	98	70	74	95	86	79	86	73	97	90	34	YES	12	12	24	127.12%	85.71%	108.30%	GOOD
Jari Kurri	RW	82	84	81	88	90	63	84	88	91	73	95	91	29	90	34	YES	8	9	17	84.75%	64.29%	76.71%	BAD
Joe Nieuwendyk	LW	84	87	86	85	92	71	92	80	85	78	91	44	47	89	27	YES	11	14	25	116.53%	100.00%	112.82%	GOOD
Cam Neely	RW	90	81	90	86	76	44	87	80	90	79	90	63	54	89	29	YES	8	15	23	84.75%	107.14%	103.79%	GOOD
Dave Andreychuk	RW	90	78	91	78	87	44	84	89	86	79	90	79	29	89	30	YES	4	12	16	42.37%	85.71%	72.20%	BAD
Gerard Gallant	C	88	82	80	84	82	69	86	86	88	83	87	91	45	89	31	YES	9	13	22	95.34%	92.86%	99.28%	BAD
Carey Wilson	RW	84	90	87	83	89	62	90	81	89	72	92	72	49	89	32	YES	12	12	24	127.12%	85.71%	108.30%	GOOD
Peter Zezel	C	82	86	87	90	78	70	84	87	86	76	83	61	99	88	29	YES	16	15	31	169.49%	107.14%	139.89%	GOOD
Esa Tikkanen	LW	87	87	85	78	84	60	88	82	87	86	83	60	25	88	29	YES	4	6	10	42.37%	42.86%	45.13%	BAD
Steve Larmer	C	82	83	84	86	87	68	83	88	88	84	83	89	25	88	33	YES	5	10	15	52.97%	71.43%	67.69%	BAD
Daryl Evans	C	87	80	93	89	85	64	84	89	86	74	80	95	31	88	33	YES	6	12	18	63.56%	85.71%	81.23%	BAD
Luc Robitaille	LW	89	85	79	88	88	70	86	82	90	72	86	62	38	87	28	YES	6	10	16	63.56%	71.43%	72.20%	BAD
Doug Gilmour	LW	86	80	76	83	83	51	84	90	83	88	83	54	77	87	30	YES	5	18	23	52.97%	128.57%	103.79%	GOOD
Todd Bergen	LW	78	86	87	75	69	95	88	74	91	78	87	63	29	87	30	YES	7	12	19	74.15%	85.71%	85.74%	GOOD
Troy Murray	LW	79	83	88	85	90	74	83	75	86	87	83	74	36	87	32	YES	3	8	11	31.78%	57.14%	49.64%	BAD
Kevin McClelland	RW	74	82	82	87	86	51	87	86	84	80	86	69	35	87	32	YES	8	21	29	84.75%	150.00%	130.87%	GOOD
Stephane Richer	RW	86	86	79	78	89	90	86	79	85	76	87	48	25	86	28	YES	10	7	17	105.93%	50.00%	76.71%	GOOD
Gary Roberts	LW	82	80	87	84	70	42	85	83	80	82	83	53	87	86	28	YES	6	8	14	63.56%	57.14%	63.18%	BAD
Russ Courtnall	LW	78	89	71	84	86	76	88	87	87	84	81	53	29	86	29	YES	5	8	13	52.97%	57.14%	58.66%	BAD
Petr Klima	RW	81	88	81	78	82	67	90	78	84	80	83	57	42	86	29	YES	8	8	16	84.75%	57.14%	72.20%	GOOD
Murray Craven	LW	82	82	83	80	80	53	82	88	82	83	83	55	32	86	30	YES	6	10	16	63.56%	71.43%	72.20%	BAD
Brian Bellows	C	78	84	86	88	86	62	88	81	82	79	84	74	26	86	30	YES	6	9	15	63.56%	64.29%	67.69%	BAD
Normand Leveille	LW	83	88	86	85	69	77	81	82	80	79	83	68	37	86	31	YES	4	3	7	42.37%	21.43%	31.59%	BAD
Anton Stastny	RW	85	75	74	86	96	76	84	88	80	68	83	93	99	86	34	YES	7	10	17	74.15%	71.43%	76.71%	BAD
Mike Stapleton	C	84	87	83	87	85	84	83	75	78	89	78	45	33	85	28	YES	6	3	9	63.56%	21.43%	40.61%	BAD
Mikael Andersson	LW	77	88	78	93	74	72	84	84	80	77	81	75	22	85	28	YES	5	8	13	52.97%	57.14%	58.66%	BAD
Kris King	C	85	87	83	74	80	49	80	81	86	88	73	67	42	85	28	YES	9	3	12	95.34%	21.43%	54.15%	GOOD
Cliff Ronning	C	86	84	74	72	88	88	87	84	81	79	85	45	33	85	28	YES	4	11	15	42.37%	78.57%	67.69%	BAD
Tony Granato	RW	80	86	87	83	77	48	85	78	83	84	79	54	46	85	30	YES	4	7	11	42.37%	50.00%	49.64%	BAD
Doug Brown	RW	83	84	84	87	82	63	85	81	82	84	74	62	53	85	30	YES	3	5	8	31.78%	35.71%	36.10%	BAD
Pat Verbeek	RW	79	80	82	82	84	32	80	82	84	77	87	39	42	85	30	YES	1	3	4	10.59%	21.43%	18.05%	BAD
Ray Ferraro	LW	80	84	83	76	78	56	87	84	80	79	83	47	7	85	30	YES	8	12	20	84.75%	85.71%	90.25%	GOOD
Kevin Dineen	RW	84	77	79	83	70	53	84	79	83	84	85	49	39	85	30	YES	11	13	24	116.53%	92.86%	108.30%	GOOD
Sergei Nemchinov	C	82	86	83	85	83	66	77	83	80	82	80	74	20	85	30	YES	5	12	17	52.97%	85.71%	76.71%	GOOD
Bernie Nicholls	C	78	86	86	86	83	57	81	82	86	76	78	72	47	85	33	YES	7	9	16	74.15%	64.29%	72.20%	BAD
Dino Ciccarelli	RW	72	80	86	85	90	65	79	87	77	71	85	99	30	85	34	YES	3	7	10	31.78%	50.00%	45.13%	BAD
Guy Carbonneau	C	82	81	82	88	91	56	85	80	87	86	73	99	35	85	34	YES	2	5	7	21.19%	35.71%	31.59%	BAD
Mats Naslund	LW	68	84	75	84	88	91	80	89	92	70	79	75	56	85	35	YES	6	11	17	63.56%	78.57%	76.71%	BAD
Mike Gartner	LW	78	82	72	82	81	59	92	87	84	74	79	89	29	85	35	YES	1	7	8	10.59%	50.00%	36.10%	BAD

We'll keep an eye on how things play out over the rest of the season, but the ramifications of this rule could lead to a flurry of transactions sooner rather than later, the same way the Expansion Draft reshuffled the deck as teams worked on positioning themselves for the future.