Underperforming Superstar Update
With the regular season chugging along and the trade deadline approaching, teams are looking to make their final tweaks before the long roster freeze sets in. Since the Underperforming Superstar was put into place during the 1993 offseason, teams have needed to pay increased attention not only to what their star players are accomplishing on the ice, but also what the rest of the league is doing. Now in its third full season, 17 players have been subject to the rule. If the season were to end today, another 15 players would be joining the ranks, though some are in better shape to avoid the relegation than others.
Here’s a refresher on how the rule works if you need a refresher:
Additionally, an historical repository of who was impacted by the rule can be found here.
Now, here’s how things are shaping up for 1996:
This season, 58 forwards meet the eligibility parameters in terms of OV and age. 33 players are in Tier 1, with the other 25 being in Tier 2. As it stands at the time of writing, eight of the 33 Tier 1 players are in danger of being penalized, while seven of the 25 Tier 2 players run the same risk. In the chart above, players in blue are on pace in Tier 1, players in yellow are on pace in Tier 2, and players in red are in danger of being penalized. In the columns to the far right, labelled “Shortfall G”. Shortfall A” and “Shortfall P”, you’ll see how far off the pace players in red currently are. Anyone within three goals/assists/points in their respective categories is highlighted in green.
While it’s not explicitly shown, several currently safe players are dangerously close to relegation. For example, Philadelphia’s John Leclair is currently well behind pace on assists, slightly behind pace on points, but is currently one goal ahead of pace, keeping him in the blue. Vancouver’s Cam Neely is completely dependent upon goals at this point, similarly one goal ahead of pace but well out of the running on assists and points, meaning he’ll need to keep lighting the lamp over the final 25 games or so to avoid a second penalty. Winnipeg’s Jarri Kurri is practically Tier 1 baseline personified, putting him just barely on pace across the board. As we drop down in Tier 2, similar examples can be seen. Minnesota’s Petr Klima and Jody Hull, Quebec’s Stephane Richer, Detroit’s Mark Recchi are most vulnerable, namely Hull and Recchi.
Of the players in red, some players stand a significantly better chance at improving their stock than others. For example, Quebec’s Joe Sakic is a rounding error away from being safe in the goals department. Similarly, Hartford’s Luc Robitaille and Montreal’s Sergei Fedorov are both 1 assist off the pace, something that could be overcome in one period. However, all three of these players are legitimate superstars, and a penalty could be devastating to their careers and respective teams’ championship aspirations. Other players, however, look destined to fail. Columbus’ Pat Lafontaine stands to be the biggest loser of the group, dramatically off pace in every category. It’s extremely unlikely the 31-year-old star will be able to dig himself out of this hole, which could dampen his trade value, a particularly unfortunate event given Columbus’ good strategic moves in recent weeks coupled with Lafontaine’s expensive salary. Similarly, Troy Murray, who is in Tier 2, is having a rough season and is almost certain to get penalized when the year ends. Other players, like Florida’s Sergei Nemchinov, Hartford’s Todd Ewen, or Quebec’s Michal Pivonka and Scott Mellanby, have limited outs, way off pace in two categories, while in striking distance on the other, meaning they’ll need to improve their play in a very specific way over the last third of the season. Plenty can change between now and the end of the year, but hopefully this chart will help teams plan both in terms of transactions and lineup construction through the rest of the way.